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Longhorn is a risky transitional time for Microsoft

Have you stopped to ask why Microsoft are putting so much effort at present into stimulating interest in Longhorn?

One reason, of course, may be that Microsoft wants to prime third party developers and stimulate a flow of Longhorn-aware applications.

However, another factor that seems likely to me is that Microsoft realises that the transition to Longhorn is a time of substantial commercial risk.

A couple of days ago I mentioned a report suggesting that a significant percentage of Microsoft customers are dissatisified. If those customers are thinking of jumping ship from USS Microsoft then the arrival of Longhorn may be the final stimulus.

Why? If you have to adapt to a new interface, with associated training costs and invest in new software (and hardware?) to accomodate Longhorn then that must be a time for dissatisfied customers to examine all options - including leaving USS Microsoft.

Expect Microsoft marketing to be highlighting both the differences in Longhorn (to stimulate development of new applications) and also the continuity in Longhorn (to make the investment in staff training and upgrade costs less obvious). It will be an interesting task to marry those two essentially inconsistent threads.

Bottom line, of course, is that Microsoft must convince corporate customers that Longhorn offers real business advantages.