If you are following me this far and haven't classified me as a total nut and therefore "changed channels" I suggest to you that as you work your way through these issues that you ask yourself the question "How will Microsoft react?".
How will Microsoft react technically? In its marketing and public relations strategy? In its pricing?
I suggest you make the assumption that Microsoft is run by highly intelligent people. I also suggest that you assume that Microsoft staff, at least above the level that Robert Scoble describes as the "ants", are highly aware of economic and other trends as they impact on Microsoft now and as they will likely impact Microsoft in the upcoming years.
For convenience I have divided the various factors into the USA-centric "Little Software War" (ABM versus NBM) and the upcoming global "Big Software War". You might prefer to see those aspects as part of a single process. In that case since what I term the "Little Software War" has been underway for several years in addition to asking how Microsoft will react you should also be asking yourself how Microsoft has already adjusted its posture.
It is sometimes sensible to take the financial institutions' posture that "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance". On the other hand, given factors common to both the "Little Software War" and the "Big Software War", Microsoft's adjustments to the "Little Software War" may give some indication of cultural, technical, marketing and pricing adjustments still to come. See if you can spot them.
Posted by Andrew Watt at October 10, 2003 09:27 PM